The FiveThirtyEight forecast currently holds a 64 percent chance that no candidate will achieve a majority of pledged delegates before the convention.
Polling in some of the most populous Super Tuesday states shows that former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren could play an outsize role in delegate splitting. In California and Texas, both are teetering around the edge of the 15-percent threshold, putting them in a position to siphon a substantial share of the delegate count.
A two-person race in California suddenly becoming a four-person race could redirect dozens of delegates. Overall, 1,357 pledged delegates will be awarded across the country on Super Tuesday, more than one-third of the total number of delegates who will vote on the first ballot in July.
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Sanders narrowly passes Warren in her home state of Massachusetts in poll ahead of Super TuesdaySanders leads Warren by 2 percentage points, but they are in a statistical tie as the difference is less than the poll's 4.4-point margin of error.
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The Latest: Warren: My campaign moving on to Super TuesdayBernie Sanders finishes in second place behind Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary. The Vermont senator had won the past two contests in Nevada and New Hampshire and tied for first with Pete Buttigieg in Iowa. Election2020 SCPrimary
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