“The new voters — the younger voters and the voters who've moved into New Hampshire from other states — both tend to be somewhat more liberal and somewhat less conservative than the population who was here in 2016,” a demographer tells wgbhnews.
Last month, Paul Senatus moved from Quincy, Massachusetts, to Manchester, New Hampshire, and began the process of registering to vote.
Senatus commutes the one hour drive back to his job at a biotech company. By registering to vote in New Hampshire, Senatus represents a very small minority in a very white state: By the last U.S. census count, New Hampshire is 90 percent white and 1.7 percent black. Ken Johnson, UNH’s senior demographer and an author of the report, tells WGBH News that about 20 percent of the people who will be eligible to vote in Tuesday’s primary election either weren’t living in New Hampshire or were too young to vote in 2016. And, there has also been a substantial increase in the number of people who have moved into the state from other parts of the United States, particularly Massachusetts, he added.
Johnson also estimates that new voters who have turned eighteen will have an impact as well, in addition to mortality rates. Since 2016, approximately 46,000 voting-age residents have died in New Hampshire, and a majority of them were older. “Older voters in New Hampshire tend to be more conservative,” Johnson said. “So the demographic changes that are going on in New Hampshire have changed the characteristics of the voting population.
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