JUST IN: Our 2023 hurricane season outlook has been updated:
, August through October, according to the latest outlook from NOAA issued in mid-July.
" high chance of a robust El Niño is why CSU's hurricane forecast is not for even more activity given record warm Atlantic," wrote Klotzbach inThe AG2 forecast team also noted a tendency in El Niño hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.
That's not providing decent matches from past years to use as analogs, making this year's outlook particularly challenging.At least some of El Niño's typical influence in the atmosphere could be drowned out by the widespread Atlantic Ocean warmth. As mentioned earlier, that's why seasonal outlooks are trending up as far as the number of storms and hurricanes are concerned.
Only four hurricane seasons on record had at least 20 storms: 2020 , 2005 , 2021 and 1933 . That's notable, but there has been, mainly due to better detection of those storms, that has made 20 storms in a single season within reach more often. The most Category 3 hurricanes of any El Niño season was six in 2004, including Florida's infamous foursome .
So 2023 could be among the most active hurricane seasons to occur during an El Niño in modern records, particularly when considering moderate or strong El Niños.
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