AMOC, otherwise known as the Gulf Stream, controls the climate in much of the northern hemisphere. What if it stops?
This sea surface temperature map shows the temperature anomalies above or below the long term average at 30th April 2023. NOAA, CC BY license.
A water pump attached to the engine makes the coolant circulate in the car’s cooling system but what makes the water in the Gulf Stream move? The simple answer is the trade winds near the equator and the rotation of the Earth. But there are other factors as well. Changes in the density and salinity of ocean water also are important. Hot water is less dense than cold water, so ocean water heated along the equator rises to the surface.
The problem is that global warming is causing a dramatic increase in meltwater from the Greenland and Arctic ice sheets. All that fresh water is less dense than the water in the AMOC and interrupts the normal circulation of the Gulf Stream.Is it possible the AMOC could stop flowing? Yes, it is. In fact, it has done so many times in the history of the Earth. This latest research suggests it could do so again in the next 100 years.
A year ago, Danish researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen came to much the same conclusion as their Dutch colleagues. Using data supplied by sensors in the North Atlantic, they said there isas early as 2025 or as late as 2095. When that happens, it will severely disrupt the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America, and West Africa. It will increase storms and lower temperatures in Europe.
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