When the dust settles in the courtroom, the best-case scenario for Florida bettors could be they get one legal sportsbook.
At the end of this battle to bring legal online sports betting to the Sunshine State, there are, essentially, two outcomes: Hard Rock Bet or nothing.to the Sunshine State. And, when the dust settles in the courtroom, the best-case scenario for Florida bettors could be they get one legal sportsbook. This is not a shot at Hard Rock. It may be a perfectly fine sportsbook, and Florida residents are champing at the bit to regain access to its wagering markets.
“States that have gone with [the] route of one to three licenses, including Oregon, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, have underperformed the average spend-per-adult across the United States with a core reason being less incentive to invest in players and the product with no competition,” JMP Securities analyst Jordan Bender wrote this week in a note to clients.. There, residents wagered approximately $44.5 million on sports during August, according to Vixio GamblingCompliance, generating $3.
Florida’s 30-year gaming compact would lock in a baseline of revenue for the state, such as $2.5 billion in new money over the agreement’s first five years. However, according to JMP’s estimates, a “competitive” market could throw off around $2 billion in gaming revenue annually, compared to $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion with Seminole exclusivity.
"New York, a market we model generating $2bn at maturity, is a comparable given the population, and income/capita," Bender wrote. “The NY tax rate at 51% is burdensome for operators, but companies have held ~10% since April, fundamentally creating higher levels of revenue that we would not expect to see in Florida." So, in short, a competitive market could offer more financial upside to Florida.
Legally is an important distinction because it’s likely there is technically illegal wagering happening in Florida via offshore sports betting sites or otherwise. In New Jersey, for instance,suggested that almost 40% of sports bettors were wagering in some form before it was even legal, including 22.5% that said they were using"non-New Jersey" sites.
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