As Stacey Abrams builds her second gubernatorial campaign in 4 years, she is looking at a Georgia electorate that is far larger, younger and less white, according to an analysis her aides provided exclusively to NBCNews.
And while voters don't register by party in Georgia, the campaign's modeling of available information on newer registrants estimates that 45 percent are likely Democratic voters and 28 percent are likely Republican voters, with the remaining 27 percent unclassified as yet because of a lack of available data.
Biden's approval rating is upside-down at 42.3 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, and Republicans made major gains in Virginia and New Jersey elections last month. But Abrams' camp believes the shifts in those states, driven in part by white suburbanites, won't be echoed in Georgia because the electorates are different.
And yet some Republicans have reason to fear that former President Donald Trump's entry into the fray — he has called for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp's ouster and encouraged former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., to get in — could ravage the party's chances of holding the governor's seat. All sides say they expect the general election to be close, and the Cook Political Report, a respected electoral odds-maker, shifted the race from"leans Republican" to"tossup" when Abrams announced her bid Dec. 1.
"We found that Brian Kemp is a weak incumbent that could be very susceptible to a strong primary challenge,” pollsters for Trump's SuperPAC wrote in, “Trump’s endorsement of David Perdue would completely upend the race.”
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