Russian troops are continuing to build up on the Ukrainian border, but investors are piling into bets that there won’t be a war.
The Russian ruble and Ukrainian hryvnia have strengthened against the dollar in recent days, appreciating 3% and 1.5% this month so far, respectively. The currencies traded at multiyear lows in the last week of January.have been especially active, with the most net long positions in the ruble in 23 months as of last Friday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine has been building for months and signs point to a further escalation. Moscow increased its battalion tactical groups near the Ukrainian border in recent days to 83, from 60 last month and 53 in December, according to U.S. officials. It has also moved tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket launchers and other military equipment westward from bases in Russia’s Far East.
The uneven positioning in the market could mean an extreme outcome for investors in the coming weeks as the severity of the situation becomes clearer. A renewed conflict could catalyze aggressive moves in markets if risk is rapidly priced back in, analysts said.
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