What is the strongest finding of modern psychology? Psychologist Roy Baumeister makes the case for this effect.
When people use a number they know to estimate an unknown number, their estimate stays too close to the anchor.
It is how real estate appraisers work. What is the value of your house? It is impossible to know in advance, precisely, what someone will pay for it. No two houses are identical, and, in complicated neighborhoods, they differ in many ways. To estimate it, the appraiser starts with some definite numbers, such as how much other houses, similar and nearby, sold for.
Röseler documents that this effect has been found many times, in many contexts. There are currently six meta-analyses, all of which found large and robust evidence for the effect. Five of them do not overlap, insofar as they focus on different areas of study, such as legal, how much consumers are willing to pay for a product , and negotiations . Röseler’s own meta-analysis examined openly available data sets that offered a standard test of the basic idea.
Another criterion for something to be considered as a best-replicated finding was success at multi-site replication. Anchoring was included in the first “Many Labs” project , and it was quite successful. Indeed, four of the 12 mini-studies included in that project were anchoring-adjustment studies, and all four found significant support.
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