Japan emerges from recession on post-COVID consumer rebound

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Japan emerges from recession on post-COVID consumer rebound
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Japan's economy emerged from recession and grew faster than expected in the first quarter as a post-COVID consumption rebound offset global headwinds, shoring up hopes for a sustained recovery.

But mounting signs of a slowdown in U.S., European and Chinese growth cloud the outlook for the export-reliant economy, heightening uncertainty on how soon the central bank can phase out its massive stimulus programme.

"But the economic recovery will be moderate as weak overseas demand will weigh on exports. It will be a tug-of-war between robust domestic demand and sluggish exports," he said. The growth followed a 0.1% fall in the final quarter of last year, which was revised down from a 0.1% rise. The decline marked two straight quarters of contraction, meeting the definition of a technical recession.Private consumption, which makes up more than half the economy, grew 0.6% in January-March from the previous quarter, as the country's re-opening from the pandemic boosted service spending. That beat forecasts of a 0.4% increase.

"Demand for goods isn't strong globally, so exports are weak. Industrial production is also soft, so we can't expect manufacturers to perform well ahead," said Toru Suehiro, an economist at Daiwa Securities.

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