There's a 55% chance La Niña could develop between June and August, and a 77% chance it could develop between September and November, NOAA said.
Storm-soaked California is still in the clutches of a wet El Niño winter, but in an unexpected plot twist, La Niña could be hot on its heels. The El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation, or
, is a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that can influence weather worldwide and across the Golden State, although its outcomes are never guaranteed. Typically, El Niño is associated with warm, wet winters in Southern California, while La Niña is associated with cooler and drier conditions. So far this year, El Niño has delivered on that promise.
is more like a 'great nudger' that encourages weather systems to reoccur along a certain preferred pathway, as opposed to a guaranteed outcome. 'It's still not a slam dunk,' she said of La Niña. 'There's still a 1 in 4 chance that this won't happen, and seeing that progress will be important for saying something about the impacts. Because once it emerges, we can then be slightly more confident in certain impacts.
and global warming, L'Heureux said. 'There's always going to be the nudging provided by El Niño and La Niña, but there's also going to be the nudging provided by climate change,' she said. That could translate to more intense rainfall during El Niño years, she said — not unlike the conditions experienced in Los Angeles this week. On the La Niña side, that could mean more evaporation, more heat and more extreme drought due to warmer conditions.
to the other. 'However,' he said, 'predictability of the winter time pattern this early in the year is not very skillful, and so I would be wary of any predicted La Niña until June/July or so.'