The Las Vegas Raiders improved throughout this offseason, but one early mock draft thinks they will regress and fall into the top 10 of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Las Vegas Raiders had a big offseason in that they improved in many places -- Coach Antonio Pierce made upgrades to the coaching staff around him, the Raiders added star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins along with a plethora of talent and experience to the offensive line, Gardner Minshew was signed to compete with Aidan O'Connell, and the Silver and Black addressed key weaknesses through the 2024 NFL Draft.
Using their "Football Power Index," something ESPN claims "projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times," it projected the order of the entire first round. The average draft position for the Raiders -- per ESPN -- was 11.2, or around the 11th overall pick. The Raiders had the eighth-highest chance to earn a top 10 pick -- 52.1 percent -- per FPI. The Raiders had 25.3 percent chance of earning a top-five draft pick and a 3.56 percent chance to earn the first overall pick in 2025.
For example, the Chicago Bears -- first overall in 2024 with a rookie quarterback and young talent and a head coach with a 10-24 record -- are projected to own the 17th overall pick, per FPI. What some might consider interesting is that the Bears were projected to have no chance to return to the top five, or first overall, based on the fact there were no listed probabilities for either category. The Bears only had a 27.4 percent chance of earning a top-10 pick.
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