‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

There is a 'material risk' to stocks as the bear market's 'second act' looms

Stock-market investors have been adjusting to the jump in interest rates amid high inflation, but they have yet to cope with profit headwinds faced by the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus during the throes of the pandemic had led to the largest U.S. companies booking record operating margins that were 150 to 200 basis points above norms seen in the past decade, according to Shalett.

Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson estimates as much as 11% downside from consensus estimates, with his base-case, earnings-per-share forecast for the S&P 500 for 2023 being $212, according to Shalett’s note. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 4.011% was down about 1 basis point Monday afternoon at around 4%, while two-year yields TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.443% fell about five basis points to around 4.45%, FactSet data show, at last check.

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