NBA predictions, picks, and odds for the Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat on 4-10. NBA best bets and same-game parlay analysis.
The Heat and Mavericks both need a win coming off a back-to-back, and our NBA picks think Luka Doncic will pose unique problems for Miami's defensive strategy.
But while the Heat have the stronger raw statistical resume recently, everything in this matchup suggests it will be Dallas that outperforms expectations. Even the best-connected defense will find they have committed to doubling him too early or too late. While the Heat often succeed in frustrating and wearing physically on smaller guards, Luka doesn’t wilt against that kind of physicality.
While this line got out of hand being bet up as high as -7, I think the value in taking Dallas is back now that theseSince the trade deadline, these teams are both elite at limiting opponent shots at the rim as well as decreasing the efficacy of the shots they do allow. Miami also leans hard into defense when it’s fatigued or undermanned, which has seen the Under cash in eight of its 12 games played on zero days of rest this season.
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