MORE PROPS! ⚾️ Today's weather will play to a big advantage for some teams as they look to do damage against starters in already hitter-friendly ballparks. Read more in our daily MLB prop picks:
for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.Justin Steele will take his talents and his 1.41 WHIP on the road to Citizen’s Bank Park, where it will be warm with the winds blowing out to right. Steele got hit hard by the Orioles before the break and will now face a Phillies lineup that is still potent without Bryce Harper and can take advantage of the weather, which has increased home run potential by 35% today.
The 27-year-old left-hander lasted just 85 pitches in his last start, which was the ninth time in his 17 starts that he has been held to under 86 pitches. He also had just four swings and misses in that outing. He sits in the Bottom 25% in Whiff% and the Bottom 12% in chase rate. He is predominantly a fastball/slider pitcher, and batters are hitting over .300 against his primary pitch — his fastball that sits in the low-90s. He’ll likely also have Wilson Contreras, who is a below-average framing catcher, behind the dish.
The Phillies are a Top 10 team in average vs. left-handed pitching and sit in the league's top half in strikeout percentage against southpaws. THE BAT has him projected for just 80 pitches in a tough environment and just over 4.00 strikeouts. His Under 4.5 strikeout market paying +120 implies roughly 5.25 strikeouts, making this a great +EV play.
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