Clobbered regional US banks set a gloomy and defensive tone for Asian markets.
Brent crude oil is now down almost 30% year-on-year - a huge disinflationary impulse for the world economy.' thinking as they prepare to deliver their latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. Twenty one of 25 economists polled by Reuters expect the key interest rate to be kept on hold at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting, with the other four predicting a quarter point hike.
Not only that, Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to keep rates on hold for the rest of this year and all of next, according to the Reuters poll. As the RBA reminded everyone on Tuesday, however, policymakers still retain the ability to surprise. Surely the Fed won't throw a curve ball later on Wednesday, will it?
Markets are pricing in a 15% chance of no move, a small but not negligible chance, and an 85% probability the Fed will deliver one final 25 basis point hike. But that's what Asian markets will be waking up to on Thursday. Before that on Wednesday they have the Malaysian rate decision, services PMI data from Australia and India, and South Korean FX reserves to offer local direction.- Malaysia interest rate decision
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