Assuming that hydrogen is going to be anywhere as cheap per unit of energy as natural gas, coal, or petroleum fuel products is deeply naive.
, I dove into the economic seesaw problem of green hydrogen. Many people are claiming that it will be cheap, but the evidence isn’t strong for that being true — quite the opposite in fact. Quite reasonably, the CEO folks edited my nerdy explanation down to make it more palatable to their audiences, butThe standard process to make green hydrogen is electrolysis. Put a couple of electrodes in water, add electricity, and water separates into oxygen and hydrogen.
This is a subset of their overall analysis, which also includes the pyrolysis alternative for hydrogen production and capex sensitivity for interested parties. But this table provides the key point. Electricity has to be dirt cheap and the system has to run 24/7/365 for hydrogen to be anywhere near the current cost of black hydrogen from natural gas or coal, which cost under $1.00 to manufacture before gas prices spiked, as long as all emissions can be vented to the atmosphere.
Solar plants in good solar resource areas see capacity factors of 25% over a year, wholesale costs exclusive of transmission in the $30 per MWh range, and that’s expected to level off with wind energy by around 2030.
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