Stats NZ will release on Monday, October 16, at 21:45 GMT, early Tuesday in New Zealand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the September quarter
The annual inflation rate in New Zealand is expected to decline from 6% in the quarter to June to 5.9% in the three months to September. Markets expect inflation to come in at 2% in Q3 compared with the previous quarter, accelerating from the 1.1% recorded in Q2. NZD/USD appears vulnerable following a reversal from two-month highs, moving towards recent lows. .
If the NZ inflation numbers exceed market consensus, it could increase expectations for a rate hike at the next RBNZ meeting, leading to a stronger Kiwi. However, a more significant upside surprise in that direction could damage New Zealand's economic growth outlook and, therefore, impact the Kiwi negatively. The short-term outlook for NZD/USD shows risks tilted to the downside, but losses seem limited as long as the pair stays above the critical support area at 0.5860.
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