Seth Walder gives his intel on some last-minute bets to place before Sunday's NFL Week 9 games.
If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.
Yes, he has thrown only one interception. But he's still a rookie quarterback playing in what is expected to be a close game. And sometimes, picks just happen. My model suggests the fair over price is +121. So while the under should be favored, it believes the over is a value at the price offered. Even under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens still drop back to pass at a below-average rate. And when they do, no QB scrambles more often than Jackson , which takes away some attempts. And the Ravens are also decent-sized favorites, so there's a chance they end up going quite run heavy.
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