US Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: Analyzing April NFP release – by FXstreetNews NFP UnitedStates EconomicIndicator Employment Fed
The US Dollar has been struggling to find demand in the second half of the week with dovish Federal Reserve bets dominating the financial markets. April jobs report is likely to trigger the next big action in the USD due to its potential impact on the Fed’s policy outlook.
Although the Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to the range of 5-5.25% as expected, it scrapped the comment in the policy statement that read “some additional policy firming may be appropriate. Commenting on the labor market conditions in the post-meeting press conference, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there were some signs suggesting that supply and demand were coming back into better balance.
Investors will also pay close attention to the Average Hourly Earnings, which is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% on a yearly basis, and the Labor Force Participation readings in the report. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect payrolls growth to continue to softer at the beginning of the second quarter: “Slowly bending, not breaking, has so far been the story of the labor market this year. That is unlikely to change with April's employment report. In March, nonfarm payrolls rose by 236K, the weakest print since December 2020. Signs were more encouraging in the separate household survey, where employment rose by 577K, causing the unemployment rate to tick back down to 3.5%.
On the other hand, a disappointing NFP print, close to 100K, should confirm a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle and even revive expectations for a rate cut later in the year. The USD is likely to come under renewed bearish pressure in such a case and provide a boost to EUR/USD during the American trading hours on Friday.
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