.matthewjdowd: 4 big takeaways that may make you rethink those trending 2022 poll numbers
and the coming public hearings by the Jan. 6 committee give them a major opportunity to make that case.
Everyone covering the midterm elections must be careful not to buy into old patterns that may not apply this year . And of course, polling numbers change — they are not always determinative on Election Day, nor do they always perfectly reflect voters’ gut-level motivations. For example, when I was chief strategist for George W. Bush in 2004, the No. 1 issue in the polls was the economy, but our campaign proceeded to make the argument that the election was about national security.
This midterm election is likely to be one of the most important in at least a generation. It will determine who are the guardians of our democracy — governors, secretaries of state, attorneys general and state legislatures — as the country heads into what is likely to be a very hard-fought presidential election in 2024. And at this definitive moment, we need to free our analysis from old mantras that no longer apply.
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