Opinion by Katrina vanden Heuvel: It is vital to step back from the emotions stirred by this conflict and assess our real security priorities.
in the online magazine Responsible Statecraft, almost as much as the entire State Department budget and more than the Biden administration is committing to address climate change.
This is why it is vital to step back from the emotions stirred by war and assess our real security priorities. We have far greater security challenges — including the pandemic and global contagion, climate change, the challenges posed by China, and the imperative to rebuild our economy and our democracy. Ukraine’s resistance has captured our attention and our sympathy, but its importance might be better calculated in relation to these other matters.
If Russia conquers the whole of Donbas, as now seems Vladimir Putin’s intent, Moscow may well be readier to talk about a settlement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the United States and NATO would have to decide whether to encourage negotiations. Zelensky put forth elements of a in the first week of conflict; as the violence has continued, his position has hardened. Washington may need to drive toward its own interest in ending the war, rather than toward resistance at all costs.Any settlement would no doubt demand withdrawal of Russian forces, probably in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality and territorial integrity, recognition of Russia’s control of Crimea, and some kind of federated status for the separatist provinces in Eastern Ukraine.
The United States and its allies should make clear now to Zelensky, Russia, China and India — that is, acknowledging the geopolitics of a future security architecture — that we welcome a settlement that preserves the sovereignty of Ukraine but that also ends the war sooner rather than later. That is our real security interest.