Opinion by David Byler: Republican primary candidates Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Scott, Burgum and Ramaswamy have different odds of dropping out. Here's who you should watch.
This pattern should be sobering for Sen. Tim Scott , former vice president Mike Pence, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and maybe even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Each of them might look great on paper, but if historical patterns hold, at least one of them will prove to be in over their head and fizzle sooner than anyone expects.The least serious candidates might be the most likely to make it to Iowa. To see why, compare the 2020 candidacies of Harris and businessman Andrew Yang.
Expect similar developments this year: If GOP primary voters clearly communicate that they want Trump or DeSantis — and nobody else — expect the field to drop to two, or maybe three, candidates.prove too much to overcome or DeSantis’s standing in the polls continue to deteriorate — other candidates will see themselves as the next up-and-comer. The race would then start to look like 2012 or 2016: Long-shot candidates will stay past their expiry, and the party will settle in for a grueling battle.
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