Opinion | Why the Running Mate Will Really Matter This Time

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Opinion | Why the Running Mate Will Really Matter This Time
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Opinion: With four leading presidential contenders in their 70s, the VP slot has never been more meaningful

" by John Nance Garner, who suffered eight years in the office under FDR, and called a political dead end by others—has miraculously become Washington's second most desirable job.

It's not that the job has changed. What's given the vice presidency a new sheen is the advanced age of four leading contenders for the presidency—Donald Trump, 73; Bernie Sanders, 78; Mike Bloomberg, 78; and Joe Biden, 77. None of the four amigos are likely to croak tomorrow, but the actuarial odds are bending against them. One

on aging reports that Trump has an 84.8 percent chance of surviving a 2020 term, while Sanders, Bloomberg and Biden rate several percentage points worse.Lest you think I’m being ageist for harping on the candidates’, um, advanced maturity and general health, let me point out that they’re currently slicing each other up on the topic. On Wednesday, a Sanders spokesman fended off questions about her candidate’s healthon Bloomberg health. She claimed he had had multiple heart attacks in the past.

If the Democratic Party is paying attention to this actuarial action—and I think it is—their next veep nominee won’t be another no-name ticket balancer picked to satisfy the geographic, gender, and ethnicity needs of the ticket. Rather, he will be selected based on the understanding that he stands a higher statistical chance completing the term of the presidential nominee than veeps before him.

Of course, any president, no matter his age, could drop dead tomorrow. In 1961, writer Clare Booth Luce asked Lyndon Baines Johnson why he had surrendered his powerful position as Senate majority leader to become John F. Kennedy's veep. “Clare, I looked it up: one out of every four presidents has died in office. I’m a gamblin’ man, darlin’, and this is the only chance I got,” he

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