The United States will keep its policy of strategic ambiguity on whether American forces will defend Taiwan from Chinese attack over fears a shift in the doctrine would set off an invasion by Beijing, a Pentagon official told Congress on Tuesday.
Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said a war with China over Taiwan would produce “devastating” effects in terms of human life and economic dislocation.
Mira Resnick, deputy assistant secretary of state for political military affairs, testified that the Harpoons are years away from being supplied, and other arms are delayed because defense contractors, already stressed by the demands of the war in Ukraine, have been reluctant to produce arms rapidly.
U.S. policy toward Taiwan is based mainly on the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act that does not commit the U.S. to defending Taiwan from attack. But it states that any decision regarding such as defense would be made by the president in consultation with Congress. “So, we think there is a political cost that would be borne by the people on Taiwan for that kind of political action, and very little benefit in terms of deterrence,” Mr. Ratner said. “We believe today, deterrence is strong, and deterrence is real.”
Crossing the strait would leave Chinese forces vulnerable to attacks, and the invasion would be against a nation with a strong and credible military force. In addition, Taiwan has very few beaches and mountainous terrain that would make an invasion very difficult, he said. In addition to China’s economic woes, demographic stains, unemployment and political instability, the PLA also is having “issues” with its large-scale buildup of forces because of the economic problems, he said.
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