SAN ANTONIO - Powerful Hurricane Beryl is now in the eastern Caribbean after lashing out at the southern Windward Islands earlier today. Beryl is already the
Beryl is already the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in June eclipsing Audrey from 1957 with 125mph winds. Also, Beryl is the earliest we've had a cat 4 hurricane in the Atlantic since the satellite era of record keeping. strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in June eclipsing Audrey from 1957 with 125mph winds. Also, Beryl is the earliest we've had a cat 4 hurricane in the Atlantic since the satellite era of record keeping.
Beryl as of late this afternoon appears to be maintaining strength or possibly a touch stronger with a very symmetric eye. The hurricane is in a safe envelope away from Saharan dust moving across the tropical basin. Looking further west, there is an area of southwesterly wind shear the hurricane will eventually endure as it moves west. Given how powerful Beryl is now, it may take some time for this shear to take the starch out of the hurricane.
Beryl is forecast to pass just south of Jamaica where Hurricane Watches are in effect. The storm will then move west toward the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. A mid-level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast will guide the storm west. This ridge then weakens and positions a bit further east. As this happens, Beryl will cross the Yucatan with further weakening.
At this time, odds favor a Mexico final landfall for Beryl reviewing the NHC forecast along with various spaghetti plot models showing various solutions or outcomes based on subtle differences in how they handle the atmosphere. There is a fair amount of clustering toward Mexico but Texas is still in play and cannot drop our guard. It's important to note, even if Beryl were to make landfall south of Texas, it's still possible tropical rain could spread north into South Texas.
Beryl will either remain a tropical storm or possibly organize itself over the warm Gulf to become a hurricane again.
Caribbean Atlantic Mexico Wind Shear Tropical Yucatan Texas
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