Marine ecologists warn of coral extinction by the end of the century lsu
). These non-linear dynamics at low coral densities have not been explicitly parameterized in the current metapopulation model, and if shifts to macroalgal dominated states are expected ats greater than parameterized here, the result could be even more rapid metapopulation fragmentation.
The model results suggest that coral metapopulation fragmentation may be major even if local populations are extremely resistant to coral loss. No matter thechosen, the pattern and form of metapopulation decline in the current model is the same, due to the distribution of thermal stress , its influence on habitat quality, and patterns of connectivity.
While the model predicts shrinking, non-persistent metapopulations near the end of the century in everyscenario, the time at which the metapopulation switches from persistent to non-persistent equilibria is pushed to a later date when local populations can tolerate greater coral losses.
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