'The Power of the Dog,' 'Belfast,' 'Dune,' 'Licorice Pizza' and 'West Side Story' are a mathematical lock for the top category.
In the run-up to Tuesday’s big announcement, a slew of other film honors — including critic circles, guild awards and the BAFTAs — have announced their nominees and winners. I plug each of their results into a formula that gives more weight to those awards that have historically done the best job of predicting nominations — especially the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Screen Actors Guild — in each of the eight most prominent categories.
That gives us not only the likelihood each film is nominated, but also an early glimpse into the current standings in the Oscar race. If it’s true that the show must go on, that show begins Tuesday.For the first time since 2010, we’re guaranteed to have exactly 10 nominees, per a rule change by the Academy. A quintet of films at the top –
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