While the world wonders whether Putin will take the biggest gamble of his presidency, it’s worth asking if he can afford not to
for potentially ruinous sanctions against Russia, but it is uncertain if and how they will be acted upon. Indeed,
Germany seems to have taken the most powerful among them—excluding Russian access to SWIFT—off the table . It is therefore uncertain exactly what will happen should the Russians invade. Regardless of what happens, in order for U.S. action against Russia to be truly effective, it must have the support of the European Union. Thus far, it is possible that the U.S. is far out ahead on these issues, with several European partners lagging behind.
As Europe becomes more energy secure, its reluctant member states may be more willing to take escalatory action against Russia and risk losing access to its energy markets. Likewise, as Ukraine increases its ability to defend itself, European countries may be more willing to endorse and support its defensive capabilities. As such, division in NATO should prove to be transient. As Schake noted in herpiece, “Democratic societies are slow to align but durable once committed.
Therefore, if Russia wishes to act on Ukraine, it will feel pressure to do so immediately or risk losing its chance forever.
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