Efforts to make sense of the likelihood of war are likely to induce whiplash, yaffaesque writes. “Depending on the hour, I’m convinced that war is implausible—or I’m certain it’s inevitable.”
, a Moscow paper. On this question, Putin is not naïve, Trenin said. “The question is what his answer will be to the rejection of those demands.”, Putin, after remaining silent on Ukraine and tensions with the West for more than a month, finally addressed the subject. “The principal Russian concerns turned out to be ignored,” he said, going on to claim that it was the U.S. that was trying to force Russia into a conflict.
In the weeks since, American and Russian officials have engaged in a flurry of diplomatic contacts: first Ryabkov met with Wendy Sherman, the Deputy Secretary of State, in Geneva. Then their bosses, Sergei Lavrov and Antony Blinken, held their own summit, followed by a phone call on February 1st. Now more talks will apparently follow.
That conversation, if it indeed happens, will be technical, boring, and drawn-out, with plenty of opportunities for both Washington and Moscow to project victory, or at least an air of satisfaction that their core interests have been respected. As Trenin imagined, in such a case—the “logical” scenario, as he put it—the Kremlin could proclaim “we had to break the impasse” and that “we managed to get something out of it.
Of course, the very notion of a negotiated solution may prove delusional. On January 30th, the New Yorkof paranoid and bellicose security officials who seem to have Putin’s ear these days: “A sign of the harder-line turn that the Kremlin is taking as it escalates its fight with perceived enemies at home and abroad.
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