As Russia's military adjusts its tactics to a new battlefield reality, analysts are watching for signs that Putin is shifting his end game as well.
Mariupol would be the biggest city to fall thus far, and taking it would free up some of Russia's forces in the south, Kofman says. The symbolic significance could be greater still, as Putin originally justified the war in part as a mission to "liberate" the Donbas.
A senior defense official also briefed reporters Monday that Russia may be seeking to "improve their position at the negotiating table." Moscow is demanding that Ukraine rule out future NATO membership and give up all claims to Crimea and the Donbas "republics."has signaled some flexibility on the former but not the latter. It's also not clear how serious Putin is about seeking a deal.Russia's exhausted and depleted forces will need to be reinforced and resupplied, perhaps during an operational pause or even a temporary ceasefire, Kofman says.
A pro-Kremlin tabloid Monday published and then deleted what it said was a Defense Ministry assessment that 9,861 Russian troops had been killed and 16,153 wounded, while 96 planes and 118 helicopters had been lost — staggering numbers that have not been officially confirmed. Russia has additional forces and weaponry at its disposal, but "the best of the Russian military has already gone into this war," Kofman says.is unclear, but a war of attrition would be difficult to win. It will be increasingly vital that Western weapons shipments reach Ukrainian troops in the field.
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