Compared to last week’s bumper slate of event risk, this week will be considerably more subdued, influenced not only by limited global asset drivers but also by liquidity thinning ahead of the long Easter weekend.
Core PCE data The headline event for the week will be the US Core PCE data , but given that it is released on Good Friday at 12:30 pm GMT, the response to this release could be minimal. The market consensus at the time of writing indicates we will see a slight softening in the MoM print: a rise of +0.3% in February from +0.4% in January, while the YoY release is expected to rise +2.8%, matching January. At the headline level, PCE data is anticipated to show a slight increase of +0.
6%, though FOMC participants were unchanged in their projections for 2025 and 2026 at 2.2% and 2.0% , respectively. Other data this week: US durable goods orders data for February will be released on Tuesday at 12:30 pm GMT. MoM, the current median estimate suggests an improvement from January to February from -6.1% to +1.3%, with durable goods orders also expected to show an increase on a MoM basis from -0.3% to +0.4%. US consumer confidence for March will be released on Tuesday at 2:00 pm GMT.
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