Top of mind for economists right now is whether the United States is in or entering a recession, and they are watching several indicators closely for answers.
The economy is not in a declared recession, although views are mixed on whether it might be or is on the brink of tumbling into one. The last time the U.S. was in a recession, as declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, was a short two-month period at the outset of the pandemic. Before that was the Great Recession.GDP: Perhaps the single biggest indicator regarding recessions is GDP growth.
The unemployment rate is also shockingly low given the prospects of a recession. While it recently ticked up to a still-low 3.7%, it clocked in at a historic 3.5% in recent months — matching the ultralow level it was at right before the pandemic when the economy was robust and growing. The housing market is especially sensitive to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates because doing so translates into higher mortgage rates. The Fed has been on its most ambitious rate-hiking cycle in decades in order to tame inflation, so the housing market and home sales are naturally starting to take a hit. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 5.89%, Freddie Mac reported this week, the highest since 2008.
Copper has been a strong indicator of recessions in the past and is so well regarded that some refer to it as “Doctor Copper."
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