Democrats started 2022 crowing about key triumphs in redistricting scrums across the country. But now, their mood is growing gloomier as the line-drawing battles end with bleak House race prospects heading into the midterm elections.
The party has seen some of its earliest victories evaporate during recent weeks as Republicans raked in stunning court wins and are now poised to pick up three to four seats from apportionment alone. This is key for House Republicans' quest to win a majority in November, which requires a net gain of at least five seats.
But the state Supreme Court and Court of Appeals determined Democrats flouted the state Constitution by bypassing the commission. Now, the new court-imposed map makes districts far more competitive, with any outcome between a 16-10 to a 21–5 Democrat-to-Republican split possible, according to Wasserman. That’s bad news for Democrats, especially in a cycle that has been speculated to be a red wave and could result in them losing ground in the reliably blue state.
National Republicans had initially fretted about the prospect of unresolved intraparty melees in Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri kicking apportionment power they controlled to the courts for less favorable outcomes. In hindsight, however, late map enactments may have proven to be somewhat advantageous, enabling the clock to run out on key legal challenges to their preferred apportionment.
It remains to be seen how the timing of enactment will play out in Florida, as challenges to the Sunshine State’s map make their way up the state’s courts amid looming election-related deadlines. The current map is expected to bolster the GOP’s current 16-11 congressional edge to 20-8. Florida gained a seat in this round of reapportionment due to its fast population growth.
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