'Our results also imply that the future path of housing costs may depend critically on the path of remote work,' two economists wrote in a new paper.
Remote work has played a big part in the rise in house prices in the U.S. during the first two years of the pandemic, but just how much?
The researchers wrote: “Our results imply a fundamentals-based explanation for the recent increases in housing costs over speculation or financial factors, and that the evolution of remote work is likely to have large effects on the future path of house prices and inflation.” The paper was distributed Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.3% for the week ending May 12, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC . To put that in context: The average rate hovered at 2.94% a year ago. The latest NBER research details the relationship between remote work and house prices. “Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a 0.93% increase in house prices after controlling for negative spillovers from migration,” the authors wrote. “This cross-sectional estimate combined with the aggregate shift to remote work implies that remote work raised aggregate U.S. house prices by 15.1%.
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