B. of A. Securities' Bruno Braizinha says he and his colleagues are now forecasting a 50 basis point inversion of the spread between 2- and 10-year rates...
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note is at risk of rising further above its 10-year counterpart, deepening an inversion of that closely followed part of the yield curve and exacerbating the debate over whether the U.S. economy is headed for recession.
The differential, or spread, between 10- BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and 2-year TMUBMUSD02Y yields, which is usually positive, sank to as low as minus 10 basis points before steadying around minus 3 basis points on Monday. Meanwhile, some investors are raising doubts about whether a U.S. economic downturn is actually on the way: Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said, “our base case remains that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession.” Portfolio manager Scott Ruesterholz of Insight Investment, which oversees $1.1 trillion in assets, say the risk of a recession in 2022 is “very low.
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