We've got a pitcher's duel with Cole Ragans facing Corbin Burnes and our Royals vs. Orioles predictions expect an abbreviated outing from the latter.
Cole Ragans and the Royals offense should counter Corbin Burnes well in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series. Burnes' strikeout numbers are well below his usual mark, and even though results were largely strong, the playoffs are a different beast.
The 29-year-old right-hander struck out just 23.1% of the batters he faced this season. That is just about league average, which is fine if you ignore that this was his lowest K-rate since his rookie season and his K-rate was 31.6% over the last five campaigns. Meanwhile, the Royals, have done a solid job against RHP all season, ranking 11th in batting average, 12th in OPS, and 16th in wRC+. On top of that, they have the third-highest contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone.
Perez is an impressive 6-for-12 in his career with a dinger and just one strikeout in his career vs. the O’s right-hander. The stage is also never too big for the former World Series MVP, and I like him to start his postseason with a hit tonight.. Like many of his teammates, Rutschman cooled off in the second half, but he closed the season with hits in five of his last seven games, including three multi-hit games.
I like the value of the Royals as underdogs in Game 1. The starters are fairly even, and both lineups struggled in the second half. The difference is a Baltimore bullpen that had the fourth-worst ERA in baseball since Aug. 1.Kansas City's bullpen has question marks of its own. If you like the Under, I would keep it to the first five innings. Otherwise Over 6.5 on the full-game total is tempting.The Royals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 39 away games for +10.
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