S&P 500 slips after failing to break above resistance at 3980. August retail sales come in hotter than expected, 0.3% vs. 0.0% est. “Quad-witching” occurs Friday, options expiration totaling $3+ trillion.
volatility. Quad-witching occurs quarterly, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire on the same day. Roughly $3.2 trillion of options are set to expire this Friday, which may cause a flurry of activity as market participants look to roll and/or trade what they hold. According to Goldman Sachs, roughly $2 billion is tied to the S&P 500 while $500 billion is tied to single stocks.
After spending much of the afternoon yesterday and the overnight session just below 3980, bears were able to flush price through the post-CPI lows. As we look to tomorrow’s options expiration and next week’s FOMC meeting, I would like to see price test the 3900 area before thinking about longs. Confluence of fib and psychological support in this area could allow for bulls to make a renewed assault on higher prices, which may materialize should the Fed decide against raising by 100 basis points.
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