Secret intelligence is playing an unusually public role in the war in Ukraine. Intelligence agencies, especially in the U.S. and Britain, have been willing to share their assessments of what is happening on the battlefield — and inside the Kremlin.
Officials say the stream of declassified intelligence — which includes regular briefings to journalists in Washington and London and daily Twitter updates from Britain’s defense ministry — has several aims. Partly it’s to let Putin know he is being watched, and to make him question what he’s being told. It’s also designed to embolden the Russian military to tell Putin the truth, and to convey to the Russian public that they have been lied to about the war.
Biden administration officials say they decided to aggressively share intelligence and coordinate messaging with key allies, including Britain, as U.S. concerns about Russian troop movements in autumn 2021 put the intelligence community on high alert. Some allies and analysts were skeptical, with memories lingering of past intelligence failings, like the false claim Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction that was used to justify the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
Eric Vidaud’s departure comes amid soul-searching among France’s leadership about why it was taken by surprise by the war — which was particularly embarrassing for President Emmanuel Macron, who speaks regularly with Putin. Some see Vidaud as a scapegoat, and note that his removal comes just ahead of this month’s French presidential election.
The impact inside Russia is hard to measure. The U.S. official who spoke to the AP said the White House hopes divulging intelligence that Putin is misinformed could help prod the Russian leader to reconsider his options in Ukraine. But the publicity could also risk further isolating Putin or make him double down on his aim of restoring Russian prestige lost since the fall of the Soviet Union.
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