2021 was meant to be a big recovery year for West European auto sales but they are now expected to fall 2.7% according to LMC Automotive. In 2022 sales should rebound 7.1%, but profitability will be under pressure in the 2nd half.
Fitch recently reported improved ratings on Stellantis, the multi-brand company formed by the merger of PSA group and Fiat-Chrysler, Volkswagen, Daimler and Renault. .
Investment bank UBS expects auto makers' earnings momentum will be maintained at least in the first half of 2022.But the industry is likely to revert to old, bad habits of seeking market share at the expense of profits as production returns to normal. Worries about winners and losers, as the electric car revolution and autonomous cars gain momentum, will worry investors.
“During a rapidly accelerating shift towards electric cars, and shrinking ICE car sales as a consequence, old bad habits will likely be back soon. We think investor focus will then shift again to who wins in electric and autonomous vehicles and software-enabled businesses. Concerns about discretionary spending in a higher-inflation environment will also come into focus, especially in the low-end part of the market,” Hummel said.
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