Steel Is A Major Climate Problem, But Can Decarbonize Rapidly In The Coming Decades
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But of course that blessing comes with a downside. Global steel manufacturing produces about 7% of the CO2 emissions that cause global warming right now, and consumes about 8% of global primary energy as furnaces consume millions of tons of coal and natural gas to make iron and then process it into steel.
Other geographies will follow China’s pathway, but at nowhere near the pace, because the conditions that allowed China to bloom, a western willingness to outsource manufacturing of vastly increased consumer goods, do not exist today.
One of the biggest consumers of iron and steel in the world, the fossil fuel industry, which is subsumed in the 55% of steel that buildings and infrastructure consume, will turn from a net consumer of steel to a supplier of scrap steel for decades to come. Peak coal demand occurred in 2013 with a brief return in the energy crisis of 2022. Peak oil demand is quite possibly before 2030, per analyses by Equinor, McKinsey, and the IEA. Peak natural gas is likely in the mid 2030s.
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