The major U.S. stock market indexes have suffered an unusually large loss. Will they keep falling or bounce back? Columnist MktwHulbert weighs in.
That’s worth pointing out because, after hitting all-time highs on the first trading day of 2022, the major U.S. stock market indexes have suffered an unusually large loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, -1.99% January-through-April delcine was the worst start to a calendar year since 1939, for example. The comparable loss for the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -4.29% was the worst start to any year in its history. .
These 32 bear markets are plotted in the chart below. Notice the lack of any correlation between the magnitude of the bear market’s first-four-month loss and the eventual length of the bear market. The chart also shows the r-squared for the trendline that best fits the data points, and it’s essentially zero — indicating that there is no statistically significant relationship between the two data series.
This is once again illustrated by the 1939-42 bear market. After losing 4.9% in its initial four months, the Dow over the remainder of that bear market lost an additional 37.3%. That’s nearly double the average bear-market loss from its four-month mark to its end.
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