Information from archive aerial photographs has helped us understand how glaciers on the Svalbard archipelago will change as the climate continues to warm.
The area is seen as a preview of what is in store for other regions under climate change, as it has warmed at a rate of 1.7°C per decade since 1991, which is seven times the global average for the same period.But understanding how Svalbard’s glaciers will respond to future warming is hampered by a lack of observations before the modern satellite era.
To get around the paucity of data between the photos and the modern satellite record beginning in 2010, the researchers used the fact that Svalbard has a high number of glaciers – more than 1500. Because some of these experience different climate conditions, they could use the 1930s photographs from across Svalbard to understand how the archipelago’s glaciers respond to climate, a strategy they called a space-for-time approach.
Geyman and her colleagues say one caveat is that their future projections don’t account for feedbacks that could change how future melt speeds up or slows down. However, she is excited that her space-for-time approach opens up an innovative way to better understand other glaciers where historical information is limited.
“Using an entirely different approach, it confirms the veracity of the other approaches, and that is reassuring,” says
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