Political betting markets are now expecting Liz Truss to be ousted as prime minister this year, after Friday’s dramatic firing of her political ally Kwasi Kwarteng.
According to the political betting site Smarkets, there’s a two-thirds probability Truss will exit this year. That’s up from below 27% before she dismissed Kwarteng as chancellor of the exchequer.
Truss’s rival Rishi Sunak is seen as the favorite to replace her, with a 37% chance, while the new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has a 21% chance. Hunt on Monday outlined further budget cuts, reversing nearly all of the tax cut plans introduced by Kwarteng and Truss. The new plan received a warm welcome in bond market circles, as the yield on the 30-year gilt TMBMKGB-30Y, 4.370% dropped by nearly 50 basis points.
Defense minister Ben Wallace has a 17% chance of succeeding her. Labour leader Keir Starmer has an 11% chance if she makes it to a general election without a change in Conservative leadership.
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