An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
shifting to out of the west then northwest through the day at 20-40 mph, higher gusts in the morning, gradually diminishing through the afternoon/evening.will be a daily threat at the beaches, especially at high tide - becoming more significant with each day through this week. There will also be an astronomical boost due to the full moon phase which begins Tue. Ponding & - eventually flooding - will also occur along the St. Johns River & its tributaries.
Overall conditions appear rather optimal for strengthening once Nicole becomes tropical & tightens its circulation as the storm starts moving west/southwest. Shear will be decreasing, moisture increasing & sea surface temps. are warm including pretty significant deep oceanic heat content not to mention Nicole will traverse the very warm Gulf Stream. I’ve noticed multiple times over the last 20+ years that southwest moving/digging tropical cyclones often intensify.
It is expected that Nicole will attain hurricane strength between the Bahamas & Fl. should hit SE Fl./the east central coast as at least a Cat. 1 hurricane. Impacts are expected for all of Fl. - except for most of the Panhandle & the Mid & Lower Keys -... in addition to the Bahamas + parts of the Carolina’s to perhaps as far north as Chesapeake Bay & New England in the longer term.
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