An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
early Mon. with a landfall over Western Cuba early Tue. as a Cat. 3 hurricane. This is a classic wave in that it formed from a complex of intense storms over Africa... encountered hostile conditions for days before finding more favorable conditions. Virtually all ingredients are in place for maintaining Ian’s intensity over the SE Gulf.
One should be careful about determining the threat to life & property based on the category of the storm & whether or not Ian is weakening. Dangerous impacts are imminent for a good part of Fl. It’s possible that the storm surge will be a category or so higher than what one might expect - than the actual category of the storm - for parts of the Fl. west coast... & even other parts of Florida.
The drier mid & upper level air will increase late this week closer to Fl. along with the increase in shear - this combination will hopefully - & should - drop Ian’s intensity from its peak over the Gulf & at landfall while moving inland. model consistency & agreement is increasing. There are still question marks after landfall but even with that, it’s clear the west & SW coast of Fl.
a tropical storm/typhoon has formed over the W. Pacific & will move due west to Asia. Perhaps of more importance is a tropical cyclone a few days ago that turned rather sharply to the northeast & moved near & east of Japan & has since become a post-tropical low. A new tropical cyclone taking shape east of Japan will follow a similar path turning sharply northeast to the east of Japan. A teleconnection implies the sharper turn north/northeast for Ian. .
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