Gilbert Garcia, of Houston’s Garcia Hamilton Associates, laid out his case in November....
, that central bank officials would have to raise interest rates much faster and higher than they were signaling, bond yields would rise sharply, and stocks could fall as much as 20 percent.
Seven months later, inflation has climbed to a 40-year high of 8.6 percent. Stocks have fallen about 20 percent,. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield about doubled to more than 3 percent, before recently falling back below that threshold. Garcia says the Fed is already making its next big mistake by raising interest rates in huge increments, likely leading the U.S. into a steep recession.
A: They should have stopped buying bonds somewhere around September, and by January, it should have been clear to them that inflation was more than just transitory. They should have already raised rates. Now, they’re behind and they’re moving too far too fast.
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