One study after another is coming to the same conclusion: the Arctic is heating up much faster than earlier research suggested
CLIMATEWIRE | One study after another is coming to the same conclusion about the rapidly warming Arctic: It’s heating up a lot faster than earlier research suggested.
In all, the study concludes, the Arctic has warmed at about four times the global average rate over the last 43 years. “Arctic amplification was not constant — it really changed in individual decades after 1970,” said Petr Chylek, a researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory and lead author of the study.
Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, says he’s often reluctant to “pin a number” on Arctic warming at all. The exact figure is a mutable thing, shifting with different time periods and geographic areas. Various physical processes are helping rapidly raise temperatures at the top of the world. Melting ice is among the most important.
It’s a complicated web of physical mechanisms that all relate to one another, according to Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.It’s also not likely to last forever. If Arctic amplification does slow down in the future, it’s not exactly a cause for celebration. The Arctic region will have fundamentally changed and temperatures will have already risen dramatically. The region will also likely continue on warming — just, perhaps, not at four times the global average.Models versus observations Scientists use model simulations to make projections about the future of Arctic climate change.
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