Stock market rally since October 2022 has posted well-below average gains.
After comparing the current bull market with all others since 1900, you could even argue that the rally beginning in October 2022 was just a bear market rally. Such an argument would be particularly compelling in light of the U.S. stock market’s recent losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA declining in eight of its last 10 sessions.
Based on the bull market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, no bull market since 1900 that lasted at least a year gained less than that over its first 12 months. The average first-year gain for all bull markets that lasted at least a year was 38.9% — more than double the current bull market’s one-year return.
But even on the assumption the bull market ended then, we’d still have to recognize that it’s been relatively lackluster. The average bull market gain of the nine bull markets in the Ned Davis calendar that lasted less than a year is 55.7%, more than double the Dow’s gain through its Aug. 1 peak. Take the 50% of bull markets since 1900 with the smallest first-year returns: Those bull markets on average lasted a total of 2.3 years, versus two years for the 50% of bull markets with the biggest first-year gains. This difference is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine. The same conclusion applies when correlating a bull market’s first-year gain with its return from then until its end.
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