The euro is nearing parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time in 20 years, but currency strategists are divided on whether it will get there.
The European Central Bank, by contrast to the Fed and the Bank of England, has yet to raise interest rates despite record high inflation across the euro zone. However, it has signaled the end of its asset purchase program and policymakers have struck a more hawkish tone of late.
"I don't think there's many clients that are going to look back in two to three years and think that buying euro sub-$1.05 was a bad idea," Zief said. "We have not seen evidence of a large build-up in EURUSD short positions on the part of leveraged funds in the data we track, which leads us to believe that the EUR is weak because of a deterioration in underlying core flows."
Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Research George Saravelos believes a turning point is close. He argued that we are now at a stage where further deterioration in financial conditions"undermines Fed tightening expectation" while a great deal more tightening remains to be priced in for the rest of the world, and Europe in particular.
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