Global stock markets have rallied on hopes that central banks will soon begin to slow their aggressive interest rate hikes as inflation shows signs of peaking.
"We think those hopes will be dashed again as the Fed pushes ahead with policy overtightening. With the S&P 500 jumping 13% from its October low, stocks are even further from pricing in the recession — and earnings downgrades — we see ahead."
Central to the downward surprises expected by BlackRock are earnings downgrades. While consensus expects earnings growth to fall from 10% at the start of 2022 to just over 4% in 2023, the world's largest investment manager expects zero growth, noting that third-quarter annual earnings growth would already be in negative territory without the huge windfalls seen in the energy sector.
"We need to see stocks fall more, or more good news of easing inflation, to turn positive on stocks," Boivin's team said. These sentiments were echoed on Wednesday by Dan Avigad, partner and portfolio manager at Lansdowne Partners, who told CNBC at the Sohn London Investment Conference that as central banks look to suppress demand in order to tame inflation, corporate profit margins will also have to compress from their current "very elevated levels."
"We're still running around 20% above the long-term trend in terms of earnings, if we look back on trends for decades, and so it seems quite likely to me that earnings trajectories are being overestimated for the wider stock market perhaps by as much as 15-20%," Avigad said.
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